Subba’s Serendipitous moments

August 17, 2010

Google wants to find the next winner in search – Maybe Search 2.0!

Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal published an interesting interview with Eric Schmidt – CEO of Google and a great tech visionary. Disclosure: I am a great admirer of Eric Schmidt.

The interview comes at an interesting juncture when Android seems to be on a roll powering 200,000 devices a daily and slated to be the dominant operating system on the mobile platform. Yet, of late, the media has been critical of Google, probably taking the cue from a weak stock price. Add to that the mindshare belongs now to Facebook.

Notwithstanding the negative media reports on Google, Eric in this interview shares several new insights about where Google is headed. Some of his insights and quotes are interesting:

Asked to comment on Android being given free as compared to the fat margins made by Apple he says:

"You get a billion people doing something, there’s lots of ways to make money. Absolutely, trust me. We’ll get lots of money for it."

"In general in technology," he says, "if you own a platform that’s valuable, you can monetize it." Example: Google is obliged to share with Apple search revenue generated by iPhone users. On Android, Google gets to keep 100%.”

That difference alone, says Mr. Schmidt, is more than enough to foot the bill for Android’s continued development.

Google’s real challenge though it dominates the search business:

The real challenge is one not yet on most investors’ minds: how to preserve Google’s franchise in Web advertising, the source of almost all its profits, when "search" is outmoded.

The day is coming when the Google search box—and the activity known as Googling—no longer will be at the center of our online lives. Then what? "We’re trying to figure out what the future of search is."

Now that’s what being visionary is all about – not reacting to Wall Street but figuring out the future before Wall Street has had the chance to position you. Maybe he’s taking the cue from Andy Grove’s philosophy of Only the paranoid survive.

 Google’s intriguing aspect of Search 2.0 can be summed neatly as he says:

"We know roughly who you are, roughly what you care about, roughly who your friends are." Google also knows, to within a foot, where you are.

Mr. Schmidt leaves it to a listener to imagine the possibilities of this social search and what its implications could be. In fact, Google is acutely aware that we are on the cusp of a new phenomenon called “Social search” which may be powered by the Facebook phenomena.

Google the creator of targeted advertising believes that it will dominate the category raises the bar:

"The power of individual targeting—the technology will be so good it will be very hard for people to watch or consume something that has not in some sense been tailored for them."

Finally, Eric presents the most intriguing and scary possibility of the future when he says:

"I don’t believe society understands what happens when everything is available, knowable and recorded by everyone all the time," he says. He predicts, apparently seriously, that every young person one day will be entitled automatically to change his or her name on reaching adulthood in order to disown youthful hijinks stored on their friends’ social media sites.

"I mean we really have to think about these things as a society," he adds. "I’m not even talking about the really terrible stuff, terrorism and access to evil things."

April 22, 2010

Twitter’s cruel irony

Filed under: Business,India,Learning — Subbaraman Iyer @ 2:52 pm
Tags: , ,

 

In the media frenzy world that we all live in, Twitter has suddenly taken center stage, especially in India.

Twitter came into its own during the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attacks when it even upstaged the mainstream media. Now the irony is that India’s best twitter – Shashi Tharoor (with over 750,000 followers) had to resign as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs had to quit in ignominy in a scandal which had the potent mix of cricket, illicit romance, politics and of course money. All of it triggered by a rival’s tweet (Lalit Modi commissioner of IPL).

The saying goes: “Those who live by the sword, perish by it.” Lalit Modi himself who conceived the IPL and generated more than $4 billion in revenues in just 2 years got a taste of his own medicine, when a tweet by Shashi Tharoor had the tax authorities making one of their biggest investigations against him and all his partners.

That Lalit Modi is now toast is a foregone conclusion. Worse things await him based on all the news stories that’s breaking out every moment.

It all happened because two egoistic, pompous, publicity seeking and twitter addicts were stupid to tweet in the middle of the night and wake up the whole world. Had they not done so, the party would have gone on.

A fine instance of the law of unintended consequences.

Facebook wants to be the Internet

Filed under: Business,Competition,Leadership,Strategy — Subbaraman Iyer @ 12:01 pm
Tags: , , ,

 

Facebook’s f8 conference yesterday is a significant event. The Facebook juggernaut seems unstoppable. It will go down in history when Facebook revealed its intent to revolutionize not just the Internet, but act as the default Internet.

Facebook launched 3 major “features”, all of which may seem pretty much innocuous but that could have a dramatic and profound impact. Though I had referred to some of the implications in my talk on How Facebook will impact us and Why CIOs should meet the Facebook at the CIO conference in Singapore, I didn’t expect it would come to us so soon.

Becoming social is default: Facebook repackaged the Social graph as Open graph. With this it is not only possible to see social connections between people, but also connect people with the interests – be it books, movies, places, brands and the list is endless. As Mark Zuckerberg  said: “The web can can become a series of personally and semantically meaningful connections”. There’s nothing more sticky in the world than a Social graph.

This will surely accelerate the move to search becoming more social. I am quite sure that the “social search” phenomenon will be something that will gain preference over the normal search in many product categories. Businesses and brands will perhaps consider shifting marketing campaigns to leverage this in lieu of the traditional web page.

As a corollary, the Web which has been defined by hyperlinks (which Google exploited to its advantage), will gradually morph into social connections – with likes, dislikes, interests, behavioral patterns etc. that could become increasingly machine readable and all social interactions get assembled in a large database which Facebook can exploit.

Social plugins:The social plugins may be viewed as mere widgets, but again the impact is far reaching. The LIKE button offers not just “instant personalization” but enables to create a persistent and continuous relationship with the entity – be it a book, music album, food, almost anything. It feeds into the Open graph seamlessly. Any user who searches for the book will immediately bring it to the Open graph from Facebook’s search engine and with another click can take it to any book site.

Mark mentioned in his address that he expects to have 1 billion LIKES within 24 hours of the launch.  Quite possible given that Facebook now has over 30 major partners like CNN, ESPN, IMDb and others. With about 30 billion LIKES a month, in addition to over over 25 billion shares a month (without LIKES), Facebook will become the largest sharing site in the world.

The social plugins will be the much needed catalyst for viral marketing or buzz marketing. Nothing else comes close. It will take a while before marketers learn to exploit this, but the tools are already there.

There are other features targeted a t developers and its implications will become clearer soon.

Other interesting developments:

Growing numbers:Facebook is approaching 500 million subscribers and close to 100 million subscribers access this through the mobile. In fact my view is that the killer application for the smartphone is Facebook quite serendipitiously. The Facebook Connect itself has close to 100 million. With the social plugins and open graph, Facebook Connect has become unassailable.

Microsoft alliance:One clear application that may not strictly qualify as social plugin, could be Microsoft’s Docs.com which enables users to share, edit, view web based documents with their Facebook’s friends. Obviously this is a frontal attack on Google Docs.

The implications of Facebook’s initiatives promise both unparalleled benefit and great risk depending on one’s worldview. While on the one hand it will make sharing and connecting a snap, it will enable Facebook to own every activity on the Internet. If people were scared of Google’s power and influence, Facebook takes this fear to new heights – it will become the Web itself from the big glue that tied the Web itself.

In that role, Facebook will have to be the most trusted entity in the world. It is awesome but on second thoughts leaves me scared.

September 20, 2009

U.S. Federal government to use the cloud and the App Store

Vivek Kundra — the Federal CIO and who is actively promoting the innovation agenda announced Apps.Gov. It includes a variety of business applications, hosting and social applications all housed in a cloud.

All the federal agencies will be able to buy the cloud computing applications and services and this will surely bring the cost of IT services in the federal budget. It is also a very innovative way of standardizing applications.

What Apps.Gov also ensures is that the government enjoys the same benefits that technology changes and pricing models have to offer to the consumer. The government also can reduce the cost of IT infrastructure like building data centers a, servers, storage. Some applications may even be free.

I do not know how he is going to handle the privacy and security issues, but I guess given the size of the federal IT budget, many vendors will come forward to build the standards needed for the Government to be their customer. Google has already responded by announcing that it would dedicate a part of its computing infrastructure to serve the federal government.

Sure, other vendors will follow.

All in all, this is a great initiative and something that other Governments should also consider.

September 1, 2009

Wikipedia wrestles with a growth and direction dilemma

Wikipedia has been an unqualified success of this decade. It is just not the product but the way they have created it. They spawned a new ideology, a new culture. In fact several enterprises have started to develop their content management and even the knowledge management practices around a wiki model.

However Wikipedia itself faces a deep dilemma about its growth and direction.

It started off as an encyclopedia from voluntary contributors and complete freedom to improve the content. Now, in its latest announcement it will impose an editorial review on articles. So, now the notion that everyone can change the entries is no longer true. In my view this is inevitable. A great ability to influence has to be accompanied by an equal amount of responsibility.

Currently they are doing a review about their culture and growth direction. I am particularly pleased that they are doing that because one of their commitments was to give a free encyclopedia to the world in possibly every language. They clearly seem to have lost sight of that.

The interesting thing is that Jimmy Wales — the man who created this movement and now an iconic figure is most critical about the direction itself.

Unlike corporations, Wikipedia is run by a Foundation which means that they have followers wedded to a particular cause. Changing the growth trajectory is not simply a matter of a CEO or the Board making a decision, but they would need to carry the thousands of volunteers with them — no easy task.

This would be an interesting organizational change to watch and learn from.

August 11, 2009

Mobile phones serve as catalysts for social media.

The mobile data services market is on an unprecedented roll. For the first time, wireless data revenue in the U.S. passed $10 billion in Q1 2009. Wireless data revenue in the U.S. itself maybe $42 billion by 2009 as per the respected analyst — Chetan Sharma who has provided details in his market update. The U.S. is now is the largest mobile data market, ahead of Japan and China. Verizon’s data revenues are close to $4 billion, just shy of NTT DoCoMo’s. The top four U.S. carriers figure among the top 10 global operators by way of mobile data service revenues.

I was curious to find out what could have led to the phenomenal surge. While there could be a few factors, in my view the single largest contributor has been the growth of social media. Let me explain:

As more and more people sign on to social networking platforms like Facebook, there is a compelling desire to share and be part of the communication. This naturally implies that more people are signing up for the mobile data plans which are far more profitable for operators. The key catalyst that contributes both to the social media and to the operator’s profit pool happens to be the ubiquitous mobile phone.

A simple, easy to use browser and a good camera on the phone is all that is needed. When the smart phone was invented, I bet no one saw this as a potential application. The iPhone showed what is possible and soon a variety of devices has made access to social media quite easy.

Now, mobile operators for a long time have tried to offer a variety of applications, but barring a few none took off. This only goes to show that managing a network and managing a application portfolio calls for different competencies. And suddenly when one was least expecting, there’s a big surge in mobile data services.

INQ Mobile — owned by Hutchinson Whampoa has launched a Facebook phone. In Hong Kong, where the INQ1 launched back in March, nearly 50 percent of its owners regularly use data services on a level that is four times higher than the typical 3G user base. Facebook usage is also 3-4 times higher than the average on other 3G devices on the 3 Hong Kong network, the company said. Soon we may have a Twitter phone as well.

So, we are back to where it all started: Carriers have become dumb pipes and the innovation is happening around the ends of the pipes — at the device level and at the application level.

So, like I normally say about innovation, the unintended effects of an innovation caused by seemingly disparate tributaries often causes a flood in an area that we least expected to happen.

July 1, 2009

Social network for Government 2.0

Government 2.0 is clearly gaining momentum. I just stumbled on a social network platform to discuss government 2.0 initatives. GovLoop is the Premier Social Network for Government 2.0 connecting over 12,500 Federal, State, Local, Academics, and Good Contractors.

This is what I call tapping the wisdom of the crowd something that I have been strongly advocating. Some prefer to call it crowdsourcing.

May 27, 2009

Will Singapore usher in Government 2.0?

President Obama will surely go down in history for a number of things. Amongst many things, he was the first one to use the power of social networking so effectively which led him to win the Presidential elections decisively. He appointed Vivek Kundra as CIO in his administration and Aneesh Chopra as a CTO. Surprisingly they are not marquee names as one would have expected, but people who have blazed a new trail defying conventional practices. Some prefer to call them the iconoclasts.

Vivek Kundra, the CIO for the Obama Administration launched a new website called Data.gov which for all its radical breakthroughs was announced quietly. I hope it gets the publicity it so rightfully deserves. The intent of the website is to release vast amounts of raw data so that tax payers can see what’s happening in the government and buraucracy.

The new site has 50 feeds and is intended to grow to about 240,000 feeds next month itself. It will be a one-stop shop for free access to data that will be generated across all federal government agencies.

This is a paradigm shift and in some sense unparalleled in the history of Government IT. First, it establishes beyond doubt the credentials of President Obama to be as transparent as possible. Second, ingenious entreprenuers can quickly develop Web applications more easily (with mash-ups becoming so common) using government data and take it to market. Finally, interested citizens can provide ideas to the government’s problems, now that they have access to better, reliable and immediate data. Finally, it also goes to show that the government is prepared to accept that it may not have all the answers to its problems and that crowdsourcing must be encouraged.

The Singapore government has been not just an early but a staunch user of IT. It has in the past, pioneered effective applications and can rightfully claim credit for the high level of IT penetration in Singapore. Yet, in recent years it seems to have lost both the momentum and direction. The Government IT directions are managed in a hybrid model with the Government CIO being part of the IDA. One look at the Government CIO mandate here shows it is inwardly focused, tactically driven and continues to o continues to operate from a traditional mindset.

At this stage of IT maturity merely notching up some incremental percentage points on the efficiency scale is not going to help either the Government or the citizens. It needs a more forward looking radical approach if it has to remain relevant and regain the respect that it once had. It needs a President Obama philosophy and a Kundra’s impetus for action.

If what is stopping this leap is imagination, it needs new blood; a set of iconoclasts. If however they believe that the government knows best and that there is no wisdom in the crowd, then sadly, only a serious failure will force a rethink. If the Government does not want to be more transparent, it is only inhibiting the natural empowerment and evolution of the citizens. If the government needs a role model, President Obama has accepted to be one.

Let’s not forget that one constant dimension of the various developments in the IT world is empowerment. This has happened not just within the firewall but as part of the extended enterprise. Choosing to ignore the philosophical underpinnings of empowerment is choosing to ignore the true potential of IT and in a way also choosing to ignore true progress.



I will have the opportunity to speak on Government 2.0 at a National IT conference very soon and this gives me a lot to conceptualize things better.

May 20, 2009

Show me the money YouTube!

YouTube        200905202253.jpg          

Most of us love both Facebook and YouTube. It has become part of our daily consumption. Some are addicted to Facebook, some are to YouTube and some to both. Both of them have been category leaders with little competition. Yet, both seems to have the same problem — How to convert their traffic, the loyal visitors and their brand into actual revenues for their shareholders.

The Facebook success and the challenges have been discussed here at length. YouTube has changed the face of entertainment. It has created a complete new dimension in shared experience, made everyone a rich media content producer and consumer with just a few clicks. Yet a business model eludes YouTube.

A good 2.5 years have elapsed since Google acquired YouTube for a cool $1.65 billion. Google hasn’t taken any specific steps to monetize YouTube. It probably doesn’t need to, because its revenues (estimated at anything between $100-200 million) are insignificant . According to comscore, 100 million viewers watched over 5.9 billion videos in the U.S. alone in March 2009. It has 10 times the number of visitors as the next biggest site. Despite that, it has no advertising nor any model to charge for premium content. Yet to cater for the surging content library it has to make continuous investments in infrastructure in storage and bandwidth mainly estimated at $400 million. Well, Facebook is lucky because it has a rich daddy in Google who.

YouTube also faces new competition from Hulu — a joint venture of NBC and News Corporation which features NBC and Fox TV shows and others. Currently YouTube is also trying to get premium content and signed up deals with Sony, MGM and others. It also proposes to charge payment for premium content. Will it be successful?

The conditions at Facebook and YouTube begets an important question — They have successfully challenged tradition and created new categories. They have also been terrific success.

But when will they show us the money?

April 1, 2009

Gideon Yu — the Facebook CFO quits suddenly!

A veteran CFO of one of the hottest companies at a critical juncture quits. Such abrupt high level departures at a critical stage indicates more things than it meets the eye.

Mr. Gideon Yu is a star CFO with stints in Google, YouTube and Yahoo and was responsible for raising capital, which Facebook needs as I wrote here.

I guess his leaving has something to do with the fund raising as the latest news in NY times seems to indicate.

The quote by the Facebook spokesman is classic PR speak: “Gideon Yu, said the company did not need to raise more cash to get to profitability but would entertain the idea. “It’s all going to be a function of valuation and a valuation we are happy with,” he said.

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